Are model trains a good investment


tootnkumin

Well-Known Member
Staff member
This ad came up in my MRL search I follow on ebay http://www.ebay.com/itm/Athearn-SE-...s-/331489726590?ssPageName=ADME:SS:SS:AU:1120 The seller say's he has all the SE's that were produced by Athearn back in the day. The packaging suggests that these were Blue Box kits. It seems he is now expecting there to be a demand because of their "rarity" and is starting bidding at the original MSRP. Considering the changes that have occurred in models since then, is hoarding old models a good idea financially?
 
The only thing model trains should be considered is a good way to pass free time.
You might be able to get MSRP, or even a bit more, but you could probably get the same return simply by putting it in a savings account. Once you factor in inflation, you could probably do better with a savings account.
 
Agreed, it was lucky I was writing that question, my tongue was too firmly planted in my cheek to say it.
 
Considering the changes that have occurred in models since then, is hoarding old models a good idea financially?
You may have been speaking loosely, but many people never seem to understand this. In this case the changes in the hobby have nothing to do with the eventual collectability or value of a given model. Something is only as valuable as someone else determines it to be. Some of the most trivial things become very valuable (like the Hot Wheels trains) while other things originally marketed as "collectors", "special", "limited", etc editions never amount to anything in the collector's world.

Look at the old Magnuson structure kits. They are hard to build resin kits, have marginal detail and many have been re-manufactured in a much higher quality plastic. Still prices have recent gone through the roof. Eventually those who currently consider them collectible and are paying such prices will complete their collections, when that happens the prices will fall to there "model" value which will be next to nothing.
 
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Not in my experiance. Sometimes things appear to increase in price as the price of new items increase however it's seldom an actual increase when inflation is figured in. Are Blue Box Athearn models a better deal at the original $2.49 or at todays "adjusted" prices.. that's arguable but I remember what a can of Cambells soup or loaf of bread cost in 1975 compared to today. Taken into account the Blue Box Athearns are not a "deal" at $10.00 now.
 
About the only example, that I can remember, of where an actual model increased in real value over the years was the Lionel, "Girls Train", from the 1950's. This story was told to me by a Hobby shop owner, and model RR manufacturer back in the 1970's. He and the "biggest" lionel collector in Mobile at the time, told me this story. How true it is, I'll never know, but it does sound plausible. The engines and caboose were pink, and the other two cars were definitely pastel in nature. Lionel manufactured a bunch of these trains, approximately 80% of which, never sold.

It seems that the girls that wanted to play with trains, wanted ones that looked like their brothers, or Dad's. Many trains that weren't sold were taken back by Lionel, and repainted and re-boxed, and then sold as regular Lionel sets. Some people had bought extra sets, or the dealer didn't send them back in. For collectors, who found that these sets were disappearing fast, they starting offering large amounts of money for a NIB "girls set".

At supposedly, one time in the recent past, a 1950's mint condition "Girl's Set" normally sold around $25,000.00, at a TCA meet. Not bad for an old set. IIRC mth, Williams, and supposedly Lionel as well, stared selling reproduction sets of this train. They don't cost anywhere near as much. But I understand that the price for the original set may still be at that price or even higher today.
 
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As far as being a canny investor, that I am not. Before the internet I collected some of the small diecast cars. Had some by an Aussie maker that later went out of business. Eventually sold them off at a local Sunday market. All I tried to do was get most of what I'd spent back. I happened to mention what I'd done a few years later to someone and he asked me if I had had a particular model (Holden Torana XU1). I told him I'd sold it for $40. He looked at me in amazement and told me that they would go for $400 by then.
 
You know what they say about making a small fortune. The key is to start with a large fortune. There is a reason many brick and mortar shops are going under. I live in a train lovers paradise and one of the largest east coast Lionel dealers is liquidating his assets. Another shop appears on the brink of failure with the workers complaining about how few hours they are scheduled to work.
 
I have some shares of stock in NORFOLK SOUTHERN and KCS as wells some shares of other companies.

BCK RR
 
When it comes to money its not a good. now if it adds to your injoyment of life yes. if it can be share with your kids and grandkids their priceless.
 
It is possible to do well, but it takes prescience. You'd have to know that a certain item might be highly desirable and costly due to its rarity. If you watch the Pickers programmes, you can see that they sell some old motorcycle parts for thousands, and they look like dented and rusty junk! Some brass trains arose in value, but they took a beating starting about 2009.

Our toys are produced every six years or so if the tooling is kept in good shape. The market is flooded with $200-$500 multiple runs of the same item. It would take a lot of years, and for people to junk or ruin a lot of those items, to make the ones you kept under lock and key to gain much, if any, value.

So, I am in the no camp. Instead, look at it as cheap fun today. Worth the price of admission if you ask me.
 
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The only model railroad items that seem to become more valuable are Brass models.
 
I have made money by luck on ebay, but I am not trying to profit off it. Maybe that is why I am.

The real return is in the activity.
 



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