Delay's, delay's, delay's


NYW&B said:
Yes, some oversized code 100 track can be found around, but it is far less desirable than code 83 to most hobbyists.
NYW&B
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Then they can choose from Code 83 offered by other makers that is in-stock at on-line hobby shops if they need it right now.

In a few months Atlas Code 83 will be back in stock after this likely one-time supplier disruption. And the hobby won't end in the meantime, apparently to the disappointment of some hand-wringers.
 
Doughless said:
I agree. I've wondered if a producer would succeed if they offered a basic model at a basic price, then offered various option packages to detail the product. Something as simple as little baggies containing detail parts. For a diesel locomotive, option package "A" could be basic parts like lift rings, grab irons, hoses. Option package "B" could be more proto specific details. All to be applied by the modeler. Even include a small disposable tube of factory paint so the color will match, and 2 drill bits.


Shades of Rollin Loughbah !
Him and possibly others --Mantua--- Bowser? I am not sure who all did this. At one time several manfuacturers offered kits to build locomotives in "stages"-- buy the frame and wheels in one purchase , later get say , the motor and valve gear , still later the superstructure , this process mostly because the locomotive cost what amounted to a months wages all told. Sound familiar? About like some high end stuff right now. HHHHMmmm?

Dave
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cuyama said:
Then they can choose from Code 83 offered by other makers that is in-stock at on-line hobby shops if they need it right now.

In a few months Atlas Code 83 will be back in stock after this likely one-time supplier disruption. And the hobby won't end in the meantime, apparently to the disappointment of some hand-wringers.
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I'm afraid that it is a bit naive to think that alternate choices are so simple for everyone, or it can be said with certainty just when production might resume, let alone product arrive on our shores.

In spite of what the internet crowd may think, a considerable percentage of today's older hobbyists generally avoid computers, along with on-line purchasing. Likewise, most of those with a LHS still around and beginners, too, absolutely depend on making their purchases locally. Although code 83 track may be available (at extra expense) on-line from a few other manufacturers, very few LHS actually stock anything other than Atlas track.

Like it or not, ours is a very limited hobby, practiced by fewer individuals every year. Limiting, or shutting out, any segment of hobbyists has grave potential repercussions for the whole. We'll see where this all goes in time, but only the naive can expect the final outcome to be rosy.

NYW&B
 
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Luvtoscratch said:
Shades of Rollin Loughbah !
Him and possibly others --Mantua--- Bowser? I am not sure who all did this. At one time several manfuacturers offered kits to build locomotives in "stages"-- buy the frame and wheels in one purchase , later get say , the motor and valve gear , still later the superstructure , this process mostly because the locomotive cost what amounted to a months wages all told. Sound familiar? About like some high end stuff right now. HHHHMmmm?

Dave
Click to expand...

The kits offered were from "The Locomotive Company". They offered several style boilers and tenders along with two types of mechanisms. They built up into very nice early style locomotives, but the mechanisms wore out fairly quickly. (Ask me how I know.) However due to their small size, a MDC "Old Timer", 2-8-0 mechanism fits under it rather well.
 
I would agree with Byron on this topic.
First, to all the hand-wrinigng hobbyists out there who are lamenting the 'old days' and predicting and end to civilization(at least in the Model Railroad manufacturing world), is to simply overdramatize the situation.
The hobby has changed- just like anything else - but not necessarily for the worse.
I dismiss the notion that the Model Railroading as a hobby is shrinking - if it is, it's due in part to older vets dying off - not do to the rising costs of products, or where they are made.
I can't speak for your region of the country, but in the western half of the US, the Hobby is not only alive and well, but is growing.
There are hundreds of 'new' hobbyists - a new generation - that are being introduced to and becoming a part of, not only the hobby - but a part of the industry as well.
There's nothing wrong at all, with the nostalgia of the 'olden days' and more basic model offerings, if that is what you like and want - this wonderful hobby is broad enough to offer all of us what we are looking for. But as far as the future of the industry of MRR is concerned, I'm very excited about what is coming in the future.
None of us have ever in our lifetimes, had more products to choose from, better detailed and railroad specific options available, and far greater drivetrain and motor control technology, than what is available to everyone- right now.
The delays cuased by global manufacturing and economic pressures are only a part of the total equation. I don't like it either - Hell, I'll probably be dead just about the time all the stuff I'd like to see will actually be annouced and become available.
And that's a good thing - because that means that all the newer generation Model Railroaders will get to inherit the wonder and benefits of future products.
And that means the fascination with trains and the hobby will continue on with out us -just like it has for nearly a 100 years now.
There's been a lot of talk about 'business models' on this thread. I don't know what all the answers are but I trust that the people at Atlas, Athearn/Horizon, MTH, Bowser, Intermountain, BLMA and all the other hundreds of related business concerns have a fair idea of what they are doing and what will need to be done in future.
I would like nothing more than to see ALL production come back to the USA - but that's probably not going to happen when most of the newer generation of MRR's want RTR - not time consuming kits - it is what it is.

Anyway, I for one, am as frustrated about the wait for product as anyone else - but gripeing and moaning about it is not going to do one thing to change it.
I believe that the Hobby will continue to undergo continual changes as time goes on and that we will all witness a -better MRR hobby as new technology and new people come on line.
 
HF1 - I'm not commenting on the state of the hobby or the size. My bias comes from working in an industry where corporations have chosen to offshore my line of work, chasing a lower labor cost to maximize profits. My company happens to be large enough to absorb the loss of productivity and counts on management working late hours to hold phone calls with Asia at 8,9,10, or 11 PM at night, making sure the "replacements" are doing the right work. Because this is our hobby, those choices are manifest in other ways - product delays (due to suppliers going belly-up unexpectedly - Athearn), or missed deadlines (all suppliers). As the consumers of these goods, we have a right to express our opinions on this business model. I for one, applaud Bowser for choosing to stop the merry-go-round and bring manufacturing back to PA. I'm not sure about the others that have posted, but my commentary is narrow and focused on that issue. The beneficiary of this model seems to be eBay. And the unfortunate consequence is the decline of the local hobby shops, who have been faithful to the suppliers all along. My two cents...no griping or moaning, just stating my views on what I perceive to be happening in the hobby.
 
PApat...

I understand your position and my commentary was meant as a 'broadbrush' of the whole thread.
I agree that Bowser is taking a Bold approach but, is not something that is new.
While they may be installing injection moldig equipment, as Intermountain and Exactrail also have(Intermountain may not be utilizing this now but at one time was- at least that is my understanding), thaat does not necessarily mean that they are intending to move the entire production process back 'home'.
Exactrail produces alot of the molds and even has produced some parts here in Utah, but are still out-sourcing the materials to China for painting assembly.
This may be what Bowser intends to do.
In Intermountain's case, I think at one time, they were molding here and then sending the parts and components over to China to be - painted and assembled - likewise. I do not know if this is still the case.

Unless the Manufacturers can train a team of workers to work in an assembly line fashion, each worker responsible for performing one task and then passing it on, and do it for the equivilent of about .30 cents a day, which is just about what it is costing now in Chinese factories(and is on the rise), I don't see how they will be able to attract a workforce, with the current Minimum Wage regulated be Federal juris.

Even if any company could pull that off, the delays would almost certainly be horrific, due to skill - or lack thereof - in assembly quality.
You think things are slow getting out now?
Think about the delays and expense of material waste, everytime somebody misglued a part or smudged a paint job - you think that wouldn't happen? Don't kid yourself.
I guess its possible to have only 3-4 employees doing all the assembly, pad-printing and packaging start to finish and they could get very proficient at it... but that's a stretch - and a risk.

And this is why I say that we will not see TOTAL production shifting back to the US, until Companies can convert to a highly efficient method of assembly of a model with minimal error and high volume efficiency. How?
Robotics.

Kato in Japan, uses this technology, and even as good as it is , its still not perfect.

I sincerely hope that all of our Hobby manufacturers are able to adapt to methods that will allow them to bring back manufacturing here in the US.
I just don't see how in the current climate globally and with our own economy on the brink of collapse - it would be a huge risk to invest that type of technology in this economic climate.
 
Where does the 30-cents a day come from? From my experience with assembly plants in China it was more like $2.00 an hour and $3.00 burdened rate for low-level work and more as skills go up.
 
A great discussion then, guys. And it's not just MRR that has been impacted, but a lot of industries. It's ironic, if you are modeling a layout that is any era but modern, you are actually documenting the history of this thread. I spend a bunch of time researching buildings and facilities to try and accurately capture what was here. The fact that manufacturing facilities are no longer functioning or not even there is the very sad state of affairs. I ride into Manhattan twice a week on NJT - Northeast Corridor, and the amount of empty, dilapidated factories along the route is sad.
Again, thanks for the respectful discussion -
 
I haven't been involved much due to a personal budget crunch. I'm starting to shop again and read this thread looking for info on BLI. I'm specifically wondering if their (supposed) release of the PRR M1s actually happened (scheduled for August)? I'd like to buy (pre-order, back-order) an M1, K4s, or Hudson but I'd like to get an idea, if possible, about when they might actually be available. If anyone can clue me in I'd appreciate it.
 
Their schedule for delivery now says September. Count on the first week of October @ 50/50 if their recent history is anything to go by. Personally, I wait for them to show up on their refurbished page for good savings and full warranty. Mind you, they won't necessarily show up there when you are looking, if at all.

http://www.broadway-limited.com/schedule.aspx
 
Thanks, I'm still trying to grasp the business side of the hobby and trying to figure out the best approach for buying. I'm still on a budget, but I don't want to let the right product pass me by and not be able to get it later when I have more funds.

So for example, Trainworld shows the BLI M1, K4, and Hudson on backorder. If I order any of them, based on the link you posted, should I expect those products to actually get shipped to me? I don't really care if it's in a month or a year. I just want to know whether the products are ACTUALLY going to be available or if I'll just get strung along for a long time. There are passenger cars that I want to order to go with the locos, but I'd hate to spend that money and never get the loco. How much confidence should I have in obtaining a backorder product from various online sites?
 
Well Orange, one of the problems with all this preorder business is that they make a production run scaled to the response -- plus a bit more. So by the time the loco actually comes out the other related items might be all gone. So it's a guessing game.
 
flyboy2610 said:
3 months ago, I put a BLI hybrid UP 4-12-2 on pre-order with an expected delivery date of January, 2013. According to BLI's website, the new expected delivery date is now May, 2013.
If I didn't want that engine so much, I'd cancel the order!:(
Click to expand...
i picked up a 4-12-2 MTH off of ebay so scout around they are out there
 
An interesting email/commentary from a hobby shop owner

An interesting mass email from Frank Ruby, owner of Blue Ridge Hobbies, that provides some interesting color on the state of the modelrailroad industry and hobby.

THIS YEAR AT BLUE RIDGE HOBBIES

I hope everyone has a great Christmas and Hanukkah.

First, let me say that the world's model railroading hobbyist, especially those that have supported Blue Ridge Hobbies, have been very very patient over the last two years as the state of our hobbies product availability continued to get worse.

The simple phrase to explain 2012 for Blue RIdge Hobbies comes from the Grinch That Stole Christmas -- "Stink, Stank, Stunk".

I feel the manufacturers of our hobby have not tried to help keep any seller of their products in business.

As I have discussed in previous emails, the situation on the manufacturing side of the hobby is supposed to get better according to them. But, so far, has not. Yes, the "economy" has played somewhat into what is
happening, but it is not the entire picture.

For example, the staples of the hobby, are not available.

Blue Ridge Hobbies has been awaiting Atlas Code 83 Flex track for over 10 months now. Last year it was Atlas rail joiners. We could get the track but you could not put it together. The are out of stock again this year!

Early in 2012 there was a cork shortage at Midwest.


It is not just Atlas! We have been awaiting Lionel Smoke Fluid for the last three years. It is not just these two manufacturers it is all of them.


All we here about is the closure of factories in China that are causing the problem. at least Lionel has
started to make some items here in the USA!

How do the manufacturers expect a hobby store to stay in business if they
can not get the products our customers want!


When I attend conventions and train shows, I try to talk to all of you. Both manufacturers and model railroaders. There is concern for the over all health of our hobby. For some of us, it is how we make a living.our living.

Many of you have expressed that they think the hobby is dying. Certainly, the product situation does play into this, but the hobby is a live a well.

Yes we all have a bias towards model railroading, but recently the hobby has seen large crowds that include not only the older end of the age spectrum, but a large number of youngster, children and teens
that are still interested in the hobby.

Here in Greenville, SC there seems to a huge interest on the Transportation Museum of the World featuring the Miniature World of Trains project. As Chairman and President I receive a lot of calls wanting to know when the museum will be opening. Also, the museum's 2012 Christmas Model Train Display was a huge hit. Many, many young families with their children and older guests attended the display during its 4 week run on selected dates from Thanksgiving to December 16th.

Recently, I attendend Trainfest in Milwaukee, WI. They set an attendance record of over 25,000 this year in just two days!

So, the hobby is not dead nor is it on life support.

Just about everyone loves trains it seems.

But on the retail side of the business, especially for a model train only store like Blue Ridge Hobbies, this year has been the worst year since 2007. Sales where off as of this email about $150,000.00 for 2011 vs 2012.

I attribute this to the lack of product. I do not have the staples of model railroading to sell. Other hobby stores report the same situation as we see here at BRH.

It has gotten so bad for customers that they are cancelling advance reservations. They are just tired of the waits for product. Manufacturers announce product and continually delay the arrival and do not notify the customers and dealers. Just the wholesalers.


Since our customers can not count on the manufacturers to actually produce something to sell, they are not buying anything. Thus our low sales volume.

While our online business continues to do well, it could be doing better.
The retail store looks empty compared to what we had in track and rolling stock inventory even at the beginning of 2012.

Yes, I can fill the store switch with product. But will it be product that will sell.
The answer is no!

The recent move to our current temporary location was done for a reason. Ride out the rest of the year and see where the product availability is, get through the elections and at this point, the "financial cliff" situation.

We all need to know how much the government will be taking from us going forward. To that end, a lot of you are repositioning your money and holding on to it. Not spending it on the hobby. But there is really nothing to buy.

What does this all mean for Blue Ridge Hobbies?

BRH will be downsizing its retail store front by about 1/3. Until manufacturing
levels increase, we need to do this.

This will in no way effect what we do on the internet side of the business which is about 80% of what we do for the model railroading hobby.

We need to keep costs down to get you the lowest prices we can without giving the place away!

Also, we are awaiting some location decisions for the Transportation Museum project. This project is having some cash funding issues. but we are still receiving great support from the model railroad industry. The project can not seem to get that big lump sum of money needed to get a
larger location and move out of the BETA location.

This decision will be made the first quarter of 2013 so that a downsized version of the overall large project can be started. Details to come about that as soon as they are available.

So, the bottom line....

Blue Ridge Hobbies starts shrinking the retail store footprint starting today.

ALL MERCHANDISE IN THE RETAIL STORE
WILL BE SOLD AT COST.

THIS INCLUDES ALL TRAIN SETS, LOCOMOTIVES,
ROLLING STOCK, BUILDINGS, SCENERY

The only exception is the magazines!

Prices will be adjusted at the register.

I want it all gone by the end of the year so we can start fresh in 2013
with our new concept.

This new concept will most likely be the future of most local hobby stores that can still get product.

The website will not change for now, but a new long awaited shopping
cart is being developed as of this email.

We will still have a the largest database of discounted model railroad products available at our still deep discount prices.

The bottom line is BRH is under transition and is not going out of business!


Have a great Christmas ---

Frank Ruby
 
I certainly agree with your post. I just returned to the hobby and find the retail situation a disaster. The China excuse is wearing thin as well.

Can you publish a list of what you are selling? I went to your website and the list of "Sold Out" and Prelists is overwhelming - this supports your post, so I'm not complaining. I would be interested in Atlas and Kato in HO.

thanks and happy holidays,

-bill
 
Hey Bill,

These thoughts and comments are not mine...I am just forwarding a mass email I received from the owner of Blue Ridge Hobbies he occasionally sends his customers. Just food for thought...
 
bigB said:
Hey Bill,

These thoughts and comments are not mine...I am just forwarding a mass email I received from the owner of Blue Ridge Hobbies he occasionally sends his customers. Just food for thought...
Click to expand...

sorry - received the email update and read the last post....thanks for the reply.

But the holiday wishes remain!

-bill
 
My BLI Hybrid 4-12-2 that was supposed to ship in May of 2013 has been pushed back to September 2013 now!
I sure hope the supply of needed products improves, and SOON!!
 
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