The cost of highspeed rail is expensive, but can we really afford not to consider it?


Bruette

Well-Known Member
Environmental impact of aviation

I'm not advocating for a bridge or tunnel to Hawaii or Europe.

I would like to hear a factual discussion on increasing rail traffic to reduce domestic flights.

Please no sound bites, memes or any other clever nonsense. As Joe Friday use to say "just the facts..."
 
While there is no doubt air travel does contribute to air pollution, I think it's on such a minuscule scale compared to just the volcanic contributions to the global air problems.
While the United States is being steered toward a zero pollution environment, other countries have little interest in controlling their contributions. China, for one, emits deadly levels of pollutants despite talking of plans to improve. Other countries like India have major pollution problems that aren't being addressed. I think the rest of world is snickering up their sleeves at the extent and expense that the United States is subjecting themselves to in the global war on pollution.
 
"The cost of high speed rail is expensive, but can we really afford not to consider it?"
It doesn't have to be that expensive. Refer to this article from the Hoover Institute that Sherrel linked to last week.

Hoover Institute Report
California, which is the only state that we can currently cite, is a terrible example of how to build effective high speed rail. Cronyism, incompetence, gross project mismanagement and excessive "blue-state" regulations doomed their project from the start. Remove ineffective governmental bureaucracies from the mix, and the cost will go down.
Dangle some incentives in front of private enterprise and they could get the job done at a much reduced cost. The article from Hoover Institute uses Texas as an example. I will absolutely grant you that flatland Texas and a shorter distance is in their favor, but as the saying goes, pick the low-hanging fruit first. Show how profitable it can be and it will spread like the flu to other states. It is also inevitable that some governmental subsidies will be necessary in the beginning.
The article that you linked to from Wikipedia is a good example of overstatement of air travel's effect that is so pervasive in this day and time. Besides as Ken pointed out, air travel is a minuscule part of the problem overall.
 
Five things that are barriers to "high speed" rail.

1. Its expensive. It requires a large expensive physical plant connecting "hubs". It has to actually occupy ground, which means it has to displace those occupying the ground. Maintenance of the physical plant is expensive and since it will operate at higher speeds, will require more stringent standards on the "guideway". In order to achieve the speeds required to be competitive, it would require a separate, alignment designed specifically for it that has multiple tracks. It also takes a long time to build, so the company would have to support huge expenditures up front for years before it can build any revenue stream at all.
2. Its slow. The highest "high speed rail" in the US is about 150 mph for brief stretches. Conventional, existing rail lines do not have the right of way laid out to support high enough speeds to compete with airline schedules. It would have to be able to sustain 250 mph or more to be time competitive. Most of the "time benefit" of rail now is that the airlines lose time in processing people on the ground before and after the actual flight or travel time to and from the airport. Current rail lines go into population centers. Current facilities will not support higher speeds. If the high speed terminals are built outside the city center, that will add time getting to and from the station. Longer distance travel will mean people have more luggage and so there will be the same delays at either end to check or retrieve baggage.
To do maintenance on a rail line, traffic has to be stopped while the work is performed. That forces all the traffic onto remaining tracks, severely limiting capacity on that line. The longer the routes the more chances of encountering maintenance. The longer the routes the less opportunity there is for a "window' where a train will not encounter a maintenance window.
3. It requires a supporting infrastructure. Neither airlines nor railroads actually take you from where you are to where you want to go. They operate hub to hub, and then other modes of transportation move you from your starting point to the origin hub and from the destination hub to the final destination. Currently most train stations do not have a well integrated infrastructure at either end. To be successful the trains will have to have car rental, shuttles, park and rides, etc., just as airports do.
4. It does not foster competition. Since the cost of building a system is so hugely expensive and takes a long time to do, having multiple right of ways is prohibitive. That means all the vehicles have to use the same guideway. That reduces the differentiation between vendors. You can only go as fast as the vehicle in front of you and you can only go to the locations that guideway goes in the order the guideways goes.
5. It has a low revenue stream. People have a high cost per cu. ft. or per lb. to carry. Grain you stick in a big metal box that is the size of the clearance diagram. People cannot be packed in that tight, require heat and air conditioning, soft seats, lighting, quiet, and a smooth ride. They are also very price sensitive. For a slower trip they will expect lower cost. Finding a price point that covers fixed costs and maintenance, but is competitive with air has always been a challenge. Railroads have never been able to fully recover the increased cost of accommodating passengers. They couldn't make hauling animals profitable, people is even harder. For these reasons, most if not all rail passenger service is subsidized by either freight traffic or government support. If you are making a separate high speed line, then freight traffic is pretty much off the table. That means government support.

About 20 years ago, I found an article in Railway Age that maintained that railroads would never be able to charge enough to recover the increased costs of hauling passengers. The article was in the "100 years ago" column and was a reprint of an article from the late 1890's or early 1900's. This is not a new discussion.
 
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While there is no doubt air travel does contribute to air pollution, I think it's on such a minuscule scale compared to just the volcanic contributions to the global air problems.
While the United States is being steered toward a zero pollution environment, other countries have little interest in controlling their contributions. China, for one, emits deadly levels of pollutants despite talking of plans to improve. Other countries like India have major pollution problems that aren't being addressed. I think the rest of world is snickering up their sleeves at the extent and expense that the United States is subjecting themselves to in the global war on pollution.
Ken I see your point and I appreciate your thoughtful comments.

Several industrialized nations of the world are doing more than we are. Europe is leading the way, that is embarrassing to me.

I have been to Europe, I have family in Europe and in the near east. I have a great, close friend in Tasmania. The world is laughing at us, but I have not heard about them laughing at us for the reason you say.

China has begun to curtailed it's emissions, they have no choice. Have you seen the videos of China's industrial cities? If so then you know pollution is curtailing their productivity. I imagine you also are aware of the Three Gorges Dam.

India and other third world nations are lagging. Cooking fires in India and southeast Asia are a real factor. Not to mention third world nations are buying up our electronics scrap to retrieve gold and other valuable materials and the human and environmental toll that is taking.

We can't control volcanos and other natural factors, but we can and I believe we must do our part.

My idea of America is we are a country made up of people who do the right thing, because it's the right thing to do. Regardless of consequence, or reward. I believe that is why the world looked up to us.

The science is clear, 98.5% of scientists agree, the clock is running. If we retreat to our trenches and nothing gets done we may reach the point of no return. Or maybe worse yet the pendulum swings the other way and the extremists have their way. God help us.
 
High Speed Rail - A Pipe Dream. Ken (D&J) hit the nail on the head. With all of the polution emitted by the countries mentioned, the impact of the US eliminating the use of fossil fuels would have almost no impact. I saw an article that stated that it the US didn't exist, the difference in the temperature would be less than one tenth of one degree.

High speed rail as mentioned is expensive, but would run between cities. What about the millions on people who live in more rural areas. Are we going to stuck with electric vehicles? iIn states like Montana, the distances between cities is beyond the range of most electric vehicles. How are we going to get our meat and produce to cities? The food chain wouldn't be anything like we have now.

I am not going to repeat many of the subjects mentioned above, but the high speed rail would be a farce.
 
Louis and Ken: Points well taken. HSR can be a solution, or not, depending on what geographic location we are discussing.

FWIW, the Acela is extremely successful between DC and NYP, and not so successful between NYP and Boston, because of the physical characteristics of the route, and the nature of the railroad itself. I am aware that the Acela is not considered true HSR compared to Japanese or French standards, but current speeds of 135 to 150 MPH are about at the design limit of the Northeast Corridor. These speeds are also considerably faster than the 80MPH top speed of trains in the NEC during all but the last year of the PRR, (When certain trains were allowed 100MPH).

We pay too much attention to what other countries are doing or not doing, and always seem to short change ourselves and become engrossed in polarizing debates when we should take a step back and see what would actually work (or not). Too often, the debate is set by Competitors who do not want an alternative service offered, and NIMBYs, who's irrational fears are often fueled by disinformation from competitive sources.

Normal speed for an Amtrak locomotive hauled Amfleet train between Washington and Boston is 125 MPH. Between Philadelphia and Harrisburg, it is 110 MPH. Of course, there are speed restrictions enroute. Believe there is also a stretch or two on the Empire Corridor where 90 to 110 MPH is permitted. There may be other locations, but they are few and far between. Rail travel is popular in the NEC, which is now Identified as Bangor ME to Richmond VA. Rail dominates between NYP and DC.

Boris
 
When I became disabled I had no help from anyone or any government agency. I had to many resources and I was self-employed for most of my life. All I had was what I squirreled away.

When I looked at my budget I did not have lots of unnecessary expenditures, but I was only 40 and I thought what I had would have to last me a lifetime. I was not expected to live, forget about ever working full time again. I had to trim what I could where I could. I planed as if I would live to 100. I made one major change, I cut my housing cost by renting a more affordable home. I cut 1-5% from every expense I could and baring another major medical problem I had a plan to meet my budget for the next 60 years!

My point is every little thing we can do is worth doing. I know it adds up.

Obviously California is not the example to follow.

Maybe the northeast is the best place to start.

I am not the expert to solve this problem, but I know we have experts in this country that can.

I know there are those who believe the government can do anything right, but I believe they can. All we have to do is to look to Conrail. The government ended up selling off Conrail and made a profit doing it!

To paraphrase Winston Churchill "this can be our finest hour"
 
I'm not advocating high-speed rail to connect every city and every town in the country. I am advocating we look at this to see where it makes economic sense.
 
We should be ashamed of our rail network, compared to Europe. You can get around there without a car. The argument is that, in the US, due to our vast expanse, you will never be able to get around without a car.

It seems each time a high-speed train is discussed in Texas, some group shoots it down.
 
FWIW, the Acela is extremely successful between DC and NYP, and not so successful between NYP and Boston, because of the physical characteristics of the route, and the nature of the railroad itself. I am aware that the Acela is not considered true HSR compared to Japanese or French standards, but current speeds of 135 to 150 MPH are about at the design limit of the Northeast Corridor. These speeds are also considerably faster than the 80MPH top speed of trains in the NEC during all but the last year of the PRR, (When certain trains were allowed 100MPH).

Normal speed for an Amtrak locomotive hauled Amfleet train between Washington and Boston is 125 MPH. Between Philadelphia and Harrisburg, it is 110 MPH. Of course, there are speed restrictions enroute. Believe there is also a stretch or two on the Empire Corridor where 90 to 110 MPH is permitted. There may be other locations, but they are few and far between. Rail travel is popular in the NEC, which is now Identified as Bangor ME to Richmond VA. Rail dominates between NYP and DC.
Don't confuse maximum speed with average speed. Acela can hit 150 mph but only for a relatively short stretch, The problems are curvature limiting speeds. The trains can't go so fast that they will knock over a person standing in the aisle of the train.
 
We should be ashamed of our rail network, compared to Europe.
Not really. Our rail network is second to none. We have one of the largest, most efficient, safest, fastest freight rail networks in the world. We are a world leader in freight movement. That's because freight is where rail is most efficient and cost effective. We have maximized that opportunity. I have worked with railroads outside the US and they don't hold a candle to the US freight network in quantity and variety of freight services provided.
 
I am advocating we look at this to see where it makes economic sense.
Can anyone point to an example of a profitable, sustainable, long distance, high speed passenger rail network that was built using private funds and receives no government subsidies? There isn't one in the US. Even in the pre-Amtrak days, the passenger service wasn't profitable, what the railroads made money on was hauling US mail, not passengers. Once the US mail went to air, passenger service folded.
 
I remember several (many?) years ago, we were told if the government stopped subsidizing air travel to level the playing field, the cost of air travel would increase significantly to the point rail would at least not be so far away, as far as end user cost.
I haven’t heard any more on that subject for a while, has anybody else seen anything more recent, or more concrete data, other than talking heads?
 
Terry you make a good point.
I don't have any firm data, but airports can't be cheap to maintain. Air traffic controllers and all the rest of the staff paid by the government can't be cheap either.
 
I remember several (many?) years ago, we were told if the government stopped subsidizing air travel to level the playing field, the cost of air travel would increase significantly to the point rail would at least not be so far away, as far as end user cost.
Yes the cost would go up but not enough to make it as or more expensive as rail travel with similar service levels (speed). Air has the costs distributed over many more vehicles. A rail line would never have that many vehicles moving at the same time. The major difference is that air will never have the costs of maintaining right of way, the only costs are maintaining terminals and control infrastructure (which a railroad also has). Air doesn't cost a million dollars a mile to build and thousands of dollars a mile to maintain. Track does.
 
Yes, high speed rail would be expensive to construct, operate and in most cases a farce to even consider. What would be the benefit of the high speed rail other than to get from Point A to Point B faster than what is now available? Has anyone looked at what was the cost to construct and operate the High Speed Bullet train in Japan?

A more reasonable approach would be to make existing rail service more attractive to consumers and increase ridership by offering clean, safe and easy to use standard passenger rail service.

I recently used Amtrak from Milwaukee to Chicago and the entire experience was great and I'll never consider driving a vehicle to Chicago again. The Milwaukee Mitchell Field Amtrak rail terminal offered almost curb service access to the train terminal and the facilities were clean and inviting. Union Station in Chicago being much larger had some challenges to access our train back home which was running at full passenger capacity that particular Friday afternoon.

A recent administration agreed to make the United States a leader in the reduction of its carbon foot print while other countries just continue to pollute the air, water and land. At what cost is the United States imposing the carbon dioxide emissions of clean up in the United States upon itself.

I read that since 2005 the United States carbon dioxide emissions have decreased by 758 metric tons while the whole of Europe only dropped 758 metric tons. Then there's China with over a three billion metric ton INCREASE in carbon dioxide emissions during this period along with India's one billion metric ton INCREASE in carbon dioxide emissions.

High speed rail would only make a dent in our energy use and polluting emissions. Why not focus on clean burning LP powered vehicles and forget about the short range electric vehicles that some how get their electricity to charge their batteries from the "Electron Fairy".

What about bringing back the Budd Diesel Rail Cars for passenger service?

Greg
 
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Don't confuse maximum speed with average speed. Acela can hit 150 mph but only for a relatively short stretch, The problems are curvature limiting speeds. The trains can't go so fast that they will knock over a person standing in the aisle of the train.

Having operated the Acela in the Northeast Corridor, sustained cruising speed was 125 mph, (now 135 MPH) along the portion of heaviest use. There are restricted speed zones as slow as 45 MPH along the route, but this speed was / is sufficient for Amtrak to be the dominant carrier between Washington and New York. Acela traffic is mostly business travel. Slower Northeast direct, using electric motors and 43 year old Amfleet 1 cars cruise at 125 MPH. Acela's tilt mechanism keeps the ride stable around curves. For the most part, the Acela is well received.

Consider that , a true high speed passenger railroad patterned after the Japanese or French model, would bypass many of the major population centers of the Northeast Corridor, (for example, the entire State of Delaware) . That sort of defeats the purpose of a Euro model HSR option.

Europe is not North America, and Europeans are not Americans. The entire culture is more different than similar. Therefore, a comparison of European passenger Rail to the North American version, is really not valid. The question is whether or not passenger rail is viable in certain North American markets. Certain Canadian and American markets do qualify and we don't need 230 to 250 MPH trains to make it work. It will be expensive, but for a country that thinks nothing of subsidizing Agriculture to the tune of 8 Billion, and spending a similar amount for a border wall, we can spend money to provide reliable ground transportation in our most populous regions.

Boris
 
I recently used Amtrak from Milwaukee to Chicago and the entire experience was great and I'll never consider driving a vehicle to Chicago again.

Here is part of the problem.

What is the market that the rail service is competing with?

The original question was replacing AIR travel with rail travel. The NEC and Chicago-Milwaukee examples are more in the distances where the competition is with autos rather than planes. To break into the plane market you have to be competitive in the 500+ mile range.

Consider London to Rome, about 1100 miles, that is under 3 hours by air or over 19 hours by rail (assuming the rail lines in Italy are actually
operating). Hokuto to Fukuoka in Japan is about 850 miles, over 2 hours by air or over 11 hours by rail. Are these times really competitive with planes? This is, after all, the parts of the world that have the rail service we are wanting to emulate.

New York to Chicago is about 800 miles. It is about 2 hours by air and over 17 hours by Amtrak. If it were Japanese Bullet trains, it would be closer to 12 hours (average speed about 80 mph). Would having a 5 hour shorter train trip really attract that many more passengers. If you were a business person, would you want to take a two hour flight, have your meeting, and be able to fly back home that evening or spend 12 hours on a train, go to the meeting and then spend 12 hours more on a train getting back home a day or two after you left?

New York to Los Angeles is about 2700 miles. It is about 5 hours by air and over 62 hours by Amtrak. If it were trains that averaged 120 mph (half again faster than the Bullet train average) it would take 22 hours. Would having a full day train trip really attract that many more passengers from the planes? If you were a business person, would you want to take a two full day plus your meeting time trip or would you want to make a round trip plus the meeting in 18-30 hours?
 



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